Index of Coincident Economic Indicators (ICEI)

Data Highlights: August 2021

In August 2021, the New York State Department of Labor's Index of Coincident Economic Indicators (ICEI) for New York State decreased at an annual rate of 1.4%. This follows an annual rate of increase of 1.0% in July 2021. Over the past year, the ICEI has increased by 7.3%.

 

Important Notice

The ICEI computed for the most recent month is based, in part, on preliminary labor market data inputs. These data are subject to revision the following month when additional information becomes available. These data input revisions could result in a change in the ICEI when it is finalized.

 

Background

The New York State Department of Labor's Division of Research and Statistics calculates and publishes a monthly composite index of business cycle indicators. More formally known as the Index of Coincident Economic Indicators (ICEI), the Index is the equivalent of a weather report for the state's economy - it is designed to provide reliable and timely information about current economic conditions in New York State.

The ICEI does not predict how the state's economy may be performing in the future; that would be the job of an Index of Leading Economic Indicators, which forecasts economic conditions approximately 12 months into the future.

The ICEI model combines and weights four key indicators of statewide economic activity, which have historically moved in conjunction with the state's business cycles:

  • private sector employment
  • unemployment rate
  • average weekly hours of manufacturing workers
  • sales tax collections

The first three indicators of statewide economic activity are estimated each month by the New York State Department of Labor. Monthly sales tax data are released by the New York State Department of Taxation and Finance and are then adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Price Index. In turn, all four economic indicators are adjusted for seasonal variation using procedures developed by the U.S. Census Bureau.

 

Past Recessions in New York State

The table below presents the business cycle dates -- including the starting (peak) and ending (trough) months -- for recessions occurring in the nation (as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research) and in New York State (as determined by the Bry-Boschan algorithm, using the department's monthly Index of Coincident Economic Indicators) since 1970.

Since 1970, there have been eight distinct recessions in the U.S. and New York State. Recessions in New York have tended to be significantly longer than their national counterparts. This trend has become more pronounced over the past 30 years. The last five recessions in New York State (dating back to 1981) have averaged just over two years in length, while the last five national recessions have averaged just under one year in duration.

 

Comparison Of U.S. And New York State Recessions
Dates in U.S. (Peak-Trough) Length (Months) Dates in NYS (Peak-Through) Length (Months) Net Change in NYS Jobs (In 1000s) Percent Change
Dec. '69 - Nov. '70 11 Dec. '69 - Nov. '71 23 -310.2 -5.1%
Nov. '73 - Mar. '75 16 Mar. '73 - Sept. '75 30 -393.1 -6.7%
Jan. '80 - Jul. '80 6 Feb. '80 - Jul. '80 5 -66.3 -1.1%
Jul. '81 - Nov. '82 16 Aug. '81 - Dec. '82 16 -84.1 -1.4%
Jul. '90 - Mar. '91 8 Mar. '89 - Nov. '92 44 -555.4 -8.1%
Mar. '01 - Nov. '01 8 Dec. '00 - Aug. '03 32 -322.6 -4.5%
Dec. '07 - Jun. '09 18 Apr. '08 - Nov. '09 19 -321.0 -4.4%
Feb. '20 - Apr. '20 2 Jun. 19 - Jul. '20 13 -1,278.9 -15.4%

 

 

Technical Notes

For more information concerning the New York State Department of Labor's monthly Index of Coincident Economic Indicators, see Index of Coincident Economic Indicators (ICEI) technical notes.

 

Email Notification Service

If you would like to be notified by email each month when the New York State Department of Labor's Index of Coincident Economic Indicators (ICEI) is updated, please email the Division of Research and Statistics to be added to our distribution list.