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By Kevin Jack, Deputy Director
In today’s ever-changing labor market, certain industries experience rapid growth. Such growth can be driven by a mix of technological advancements, demographic factors, changing consumer preferences, and evolving market needs. This article delves into some of the fastest-growing industries in New York State over the past decade, to shed light on their growth rates and the factors that propelled their expansion.
What Industries Made the Cut?
We reviewed annual job data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) to construct the list of the state’s burgeoning industries. Other criteria for inclusion in this study included:
- Only private sector industries
- Industries at the 4-digit North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) level
- Due to updates made to some NAICS codes every five years, industries had to exist in both 2012 and 2022 (the latest full year available)
- Industries had to have at least 1,000 employees in both 2012 and 2022
In total, some 220 industries made the list. The table below presents a number of data points — industry name, NAICS code (4-digit), net and percent job growth in 2012-22, and average wage in 2022 — for the 15 fastest-growing private sector industries in New York State.
E-Commerce Zooms
Between 2012 and 2022, two related industries — #1 ranked Local Messengers and Local Delivery (NAICS 4922) and #2 ranked Warehousing and Storage (NAICS 4931) — were, by far, the fastest-growing industries with employment increases of 258% and 175%, respectively. The job count in a third related industry, #9 ranked Couriers and Express Delivery Services (NAICS 4921), was up more than 50%. The rapid job growth in these three industries reflects, in large part, the sharp increase in e-commerce sales activity over the past decade.
For the 10-year period ending 2022, annual data published by the U.S. Census Bureau show that national e-commerce sales grew by $780.4 billion, or 336%, to $1.01 trillion. Over the same timeframe, e-commerce’s share of total retail sales in the U.S. nearly tripled, growing from 5.4% to 14.4%.
Companies in NAICS 4922 primarily offer messenger and delivery services of small parcels within a single urban area. These services may include delivering take-out restaurant meals, alcoholic beverages, and groceries, so the rise in food deliveries during the pandemic gave this industry a boost. In contrast, firms in NAICS 4921 make deliveries between metropolitan areas, urban centers, or internationally.
Some firms in NAICS 4922 serve as sub-contractors to online retailers and specialize in “last-mile delivery.” This refers to the very last step of the delivery process, when a parcel is moved from a transportation hub to its final destination. Many consider this the most critical step in the delivery process. Staffing patterns data show that truck driver (light) is, by far, the most common occupation with 65% of industry employment.
We’re Getting Older
A second factor driving job growth in certain industries is the aging of the state’s population. This shows up most clearly in the sharp employment growth in #3 ranked Home Health Care Services (NAICS 6216), where the number of jobs more than doubled between 2012 and 2022.
To a lesser extent, this also was a factor in #11 ranked Offices of Other Health Practitioners (NAICS 6213), where employment grew by 43%. This industry includes independent health practitioners (except physicians and dentists), such as chiropractors, optometrists, physical and occupational therapists, and podiatrists.
New York residents 65 and older comprised 18.1% of the state’s total population, as of July 2022. According to the National Institutes of Health, “[o]ver the coming decades, the total number of Americans 65 and older will increase sharply. As a result, more care providers and resources will be required to meet their needs for health care services.” Long-term industry projections from the State Department of Labor for 2020-30 expect health care employment in New York to increase by more than 300,000, or 22.1%.
Craft Beverages More Popular
Statewide employment in #4 ranked Beverage Manufacturing (NAICS 3121) almost doubled (+98%) between 2012 and 2022. One important factor driving this growth is changing consumer tastes. Many New Yorkers have developed a taste for craft beverages. As a result, a booming craft beverage industry has sprung up in the state. More than 1,000 craft beverage manufacturers now operate in all 62 counties across the Empire State, including 500+ breweries, 400+ wineries, and 250+ distilleries, cideries and meaderies, per data from the State Liquor Authority.
Technology At Work
The Computing Infrastructure Providers industry (NAICS 5182) ranked #5 on the list of fastest-growing industries with employment increasing by 88% in the 2012-22 period. NAICS 5182 is a bit of a catch-all category as it comprises establishments that primarily provide infrastructure for web hosting or data processing services. However, some of the firms in the category also offer streaming services and financial technology (aka “fintech”). This industry had one of the highest rates of average pay on the list, $190,000 annually in 2022.
Another industry where technology plays a key role is #7 ranked Management & Technical Consulting Services (NAICS 5416). Firms in NAICS 5416 provide advice and assistance to businesses and other organizations on management, environmental, scientific, and technical issues. Industry employment grew by 63% between 2012 and 2022. State staffing patterns data indicate the most common occupations in this industry are management analysts (21.2%), market research analysts and marketing specialists (6.8%) and general and operations managers (6.5%). Together, these three occupations account for a little over one-third of industry jobs in the state. Workers in NAICS 5416 are well paid with an average wage of $163,900 in 2022.
Clean Energy Future
The Utility System Construction industry (NAICS 2371) experienced job growth of 49% over the study period, ranking #10 in the state. Much of this activity stems from upgrades to the state’s utility system as New York transitions to a clean energy future, which will require 70% of the Empire State’s electricity to come from renewable sources by 2030.
Average wages in the industry were $112,600 in 2022. State staffing patterns data indicate the three most common occupations in this industry are construction laborers (29.0%), first-line supervisors of construction trades and extraction workers (8.3%) and operating engineers and other construction equipment workers (7.5%). These three titles account for about 45% of industry jobs in New York.
To support the rapid growth of renewable energy generation in New York, the state is working to upgrade its electrical grid with smart new technologies that increase the capacity and effectiveness of our power transmission system. Authorizing and building new transmission capacity will prepare the way for new renewable energy sources and bring clean power to areas of the state with the greatest need. In addition, the State Public Service Commission in 2023 authorized the state’s four major upstate electric utilities to develop 62 local transmission upgrades at an estimated cost of $4.4 billion to reduce grid congestion.
Summing Up
New York’s labor market is always in flux. Our list of the state’s burgeoning industries over the past decade is varied, as different economic and demographic factors drive job growth across New York’s employment base. For more information about the QCEW data used in this article, see https://dol.ny.gov/quarterly-census-employment-and-wages.
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“Higher education continues to be an important source of employment and wages in the Capital Region.”
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by Kevin Alexander, Labor Market Analyst, Capital Region
Postsecondary education is an important economic driver in the Capital Region with more than 67,000 students enrolled at area colleges. The area is home to nearly 20 institutions of higher education, both public and private, with campuses located throughout the region’s eight counties. In addition, the State University Plaza in downtown Albany is home to the SUNY System Administration Headquarters, now known as the H. Carl McCall SUNY Building.
At the junior or community college level, four public schools are located within the Capital Region: Columbia-Greene Community College, Hudson Valley Community College, SUNY Adirondack and SUNY Schenectady. Public universities at the four-year level include University at Albany and Empire State University, which is based in Saratoga County. Private universities in the region include Union College in Schenectady, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute in Troy, and Skidmore College in Saratoga Springs, among others.
Employment Trends
According to Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data, colleges and universities (NAICS 61131) in the Capital Region employed 15,670 in the fourth quarter of 2022 (Q4 2022). QCEW data also show that junior colleges (NAICS 61121) employed an additional 2,730 in the same period. The combined employment of the two college groups accounted for 3.6% of the region’s total jobs.
However, the region’s overall job count in higher education has slipped in recent years due to a combination of factors, including the COVID-19 pandemic, shifting enrollment patterns and a smaller college-age population. For the five-year period spanning Q4 2017 through Q4 2022, employment at the region’s postsecondary institutions fell by 2,660, or 12.6%. This contraction was more than four times the rate of all industries, which dropped 3.1% over the same period.
From Q4 2017 through Q4 2022, four-year schools lost more jobs on a net basis, down 2,150, while junior colleges lost 510 jobs. However, junior colleges lost a larger percentage share of employment, declining 15.7%, while their four-year counterparts saw a 12.1% drop.
In addition, community colleges began to experience workforce declines earlier than did four-year schools. From its peak in 2017, fourth quarter employment at area community colleges declined each year until 2021. From Q4 2020 through Q4 2022, employment at two-year institutions increased slightly, growing by 60 jobs over the period.
Meanwhile, fourth quarter employment at four-year institutions in the Capital Region peaked in 2019 at 17,920. Subsequently, the job count fell by 2,250, or 12.6%, through 2022.
Enrollment Trends
In the U.S., total fall enrollment in postsecondary institutions peaked at 21.6 million in 2010, according to data from the U.S. Department of Education’s Integrated Postsecondary Education Data Systems (IPEDS). Since 2010, enrollment in the U.S. has declined every year, falling to under 19 million in 2022.
New York State has followed a similar trend. In fall 2022, more than 1.1 million students were enrolled at 400+ colleges and universities. This is down 15.4% from fall 2010 levels, when over 1.3 million students were enrolled at public and private schools in the state.
By comparison, enrollment at postsecondary institutions in the Capital Region declined at a faster pace. IPEDS data show 67,270 students were enrolled at colleges across the region in fall 2022, which represented a 20.8% decline from 2010 levels.
Local Impact
The Rockefeller Institute of Government, in a report published in February 2024, studied the economic impact of the SUNY system. According to their estimates, and including SUNY institutions beyond colleges (such as the Rockefeller Institute itself), from fall 2020 through spring 2021 SUNY had an economic “output impact” of more than $3.4 billion and “supported” 15,490 jobs (including “direct employment” by the SUNY system and “indirect employment” supported by SUNY) within the Capital Region.
In late 2023, the College of Saint Rose in Albany announced it would close in May 2024, after the end of its spring semester. Its board of trustees cited operational challenges prompted by the COVID-19 pandemic and demographic shifts exacerbating its financial deficits when announcing the decision to permanently close. According to IPEDS data, the college’s enrollment in fall 2022 was 2,790, down more than 45% from 2010 levels. Enrollment fell dramatically over the past two years, declining 14.2% in 2021 and 15.7% in 2022.
In 2022, Saint Rose employed 118 full-time and 107 part-time faculty, with a total staff count of 530, according to published reports. Data from Lightcast, a data analytics firm, indicate that higher education has an employment multiplier of 1.53 in the Capital Region. This means that for every 100 jobs lost in higher education, an additional 53 spin-off jobs are lost in other industries throughout the region.
Additionally, higher education’s annual average wage was $70,350 in 2022, which was slightly above the region’s all-industry average of $68,680. Capital Region institutions of higher education paid out $1.15 billion in total wages in 2022.
Going Forward
While the closing of the College of Saint Rose is a major blow to the region, other schools are stepping up to help fill the void. The University at Albany will be adding three undergraduate programs in the field of education. They also have a teach-out program, which will allow Saint Rose students to transfer and complete their degrees at UAlbany. The university currently employs faculty for its graduate-level education programs. An influx in enrollment in the undergraduate programs may lead to hiring of former Saint Rose professors.
Additionally, Russell Sage College will take over Saint Rose’s College Life Experience Program. The program enables students with intellectual or developmental disabilities to live independently in dorms and earn college degrees. Students will continue the program at Russell Sage’s Albany campus.
Despite recent declines in enrollment, higher education continues to be an important source of employment and wages in the Capital Region. Moreover, employment in the industry is somewhat insulated from fluctuations in the business cycle as it more closely follows long-term demographic trends — such as fewer people who are 18-25 years old.
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In December 2023, New York State’s seasonally adjusted private sector job count increased over the month by 5,800, or 0.1%, to 8,261,500. In addition, the state’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to 4.5% in December, while New York’s seasonally adjusted labor force participation rate decreased from 61.7% to 61.6%.
Capital
Over the past year, the private sector job count in the Capital Region rose by 7,200, or 1.6%, to 445,600 in December 2023. Job gains were largest in education and health services (+7,400), leisure and hospitality (+2,300), professional and business services (+1,200) and financial activities (+300). Employment losses occurred in trade, transportation and utilities (-1,800), natural resources, mining and construction (-1,600) and manufacturing (-700).
Central NY
The number of private sector jobs in the Syracuse metro area increased over the past year by 3,300, or 1.3%, to 263,600 in December 2023. Employment gains were greatest in professional and business services (+2,400) and leisure and hospitality (+2,000). Job losses were centered in education and health services (-400), natural resources, mining and construction (-300) and financial activities (-200).
Finger Lakes
From December 2022 to December 2023, the private sector job count in the Rochester metro area rose by 900, or 0.2%, to 451,500. Job gains occurred in education and health services (+7,500) and other services (+300). Employment losses were greatest in leisure and hospitality (-2,700), professional and business services (-2,600), natural resources, mining and construction (-700) and manufacturing (-600).
Hudson Valley
Over the past year, the number of private sector jobs in the Hudson Valley grew by 6,100, or 0.8%, to 809,800 in December 2023. Gains occurred in education and health services (+11,100), leisure and hospitality (+6,400) and other services (+700). Losses were largest in natural resources, mining and construction (-4,500), trade, transportation and utilities (-4,300), professional and business services (-1,900), financial activities (-500) and manufacturing (-500).
Long Island
For the year ending December 2023, private sector jobs on Long Island increased by 3,100, or 0.3%, to 1,149,100. Gains occurred in education and health services (+10,000), leisure and hospitality (+5,800) and other services (+1,900). The largest losses were in trade, transportation and utilities (-6,000), natural resources, mining and construction (-4,500), professional and business services (-2,000) and financial activities (-1,700).
Mohawk Valley
For the 12-month period ending December 2023, the number of private sector jobs in the Mohawk Valley region increased by 100, or 0.1%, to 140,700. Over-the-year employment gains were greatest in leisure and hospitality (+700) and education and health services (+400). Job losses occurred in trade, transportation and utilities (-700) and manufacturing (-500).
New York City
The private sector job count in New York City rose over the past year by 54,900, or 1.3%, to 4,181,500 in December 2023. Job gains occurred in education and health services (+91,800), leisure and hospitality (+15,500) and natural resources, mining and construction (+7,500). Losses were largest in information (-26,300), trade, transportation and utilities (-18,700), professional and business services (-5,900) and other services (-4,400).
North Country
For the 12-month period ending December 2023, the private sector job count in the North Country region increased by 1,300, or 1.2%, to 108,300. Over-the-year employment gains were greatest in leisure and hospitality (+700), natural resources, mining and construction (+300) and education and health services (+200).
Southern Tier
For the 12-month period ending December 2023, the number of private sector jobs in the Southern Tier fell by 1,300, or 0.6%, to 217,500. Gains occurred in education and health services (+500) and leisure and hospitality (+200). Losses were greatest in manufacturing (-500), natural resources, mining and construction (-500), trade, transportation and utilities (-500), financial activities (-200) and professional and business services (-200).
Western NY
Over the past 12 months, the private sector job count in the Buffalo-Niagara Falls metro area rose by 2,500, or 0.5%, to 465,800 in December 2023. Job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality (+5,200), education and health services (+2,000), other services (+1,100) and professional and business services (+1,000). Losses were greatest in trade, transportation and utilities (-5,800) and natural resources, mining and construction (-700).
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